Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
