Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
